$20 Per Gallon: How The Inevitable Rise In The Price Of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives For The Better (2009) - Plot & Excerpts
Interesting look at the cost of petrol, not just to consumers, but in big-picture usage. Steiner divides chapters into price points - $6 gas, $8, $10 and so on, reflected through American micro-economics. He paints a picture of the fallout on autos, asphalt, airlines, fishing, roofing, sushi, fertilizer and govt (not in that order). His prediction of $10 gas by 2012 didn't happen, but it's still interesting to see the depiction of American society at each level. Also, a good writer's reference for near-future storytelling. Basically, Chris Steiner believes that as we approach $20/gallon gasoline the US will more closely resemble its late 19th century self - with rails connecting dense cities supplied by local and regional centers of industrial and agricultural production - than its sprawled late 20th century iteration, with cheap shipping, massive imports, fast food and 24 hour drive-throughs. With the international peak of oil production six years in the past (as of 2012... the peak was in 2006), oil production dropping at 2% a year, and demand rising at 6+% per year, more expensive petroleum is inevitable. It might not be $20 per gallon tomorrow, but it will probably become that expensive in the next three to four decades. This book chronicles likely socio-economic changes that the author believes will occur as gas prices increase; chapters are sequenced in $2 increments ($6/gal, $8/gal, etc.) to reflect the most prominent changes which will occur as gas gradually increases in price over time. While not entirely comprehensive (a difficult proposition given the ubiquity and variety of petro-products... over 100,000 of them and counting), it touches on the major changes that would most likely occur were Americans (the book is written for a US audience) all rational economic actors. At $6/gallon hybrids and plug-in hybrid vehicles become the #1 vehicles on US roads, and wind turbines proliferate. At $8 a gallon major investments in "alternative energies" come not only from governments but also from industries, and alternatives to plastics stop being a "green" choice and start making economic sense. At $10/gallon people move from exurbs and far-flung suburbs into areas best served by mass transit or within walking or biking distance of employment, schools and the necessities of life - sparking an urban renaissance, and leading to substantially higher (think Manhattan) population densities in many cities. At $10/gallon airlines go bust, air travel becomes prohibitively expensive and tourism goes from global to local and regional in scope; train travel experiences a dramatic increase in riders and in funding; the global goods economy shrinks, as it is no longer profitable to extract resources on one continent, turn them into finished goods on another and then to ship them to a third; more food is produced locally and regionally in sustainable ways. All of this leads to a resurgence of inner cities and the towns connected to them by rivers and rail. While I don't agree with all of his assertions or conclusions, it is a good book that puts a positive spin on what some see as a potential disaster, and well worth reading. Not the best written, most well organized or fully documented book, I gave it five stars for addressing the issue in a creative, positive and engaging manner.
What do You think about $20 Per Gallon: How The Inevitable Rise In The Price Of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives For The Better (2009)?
Interesting information and so much of it will come true with rising gas prices.
—kmou5ie
Not the best book I've ever read, but an interesting thought experiment.
—m_tor
uplifting in its projections on the future without cheap gas
—bnjones86
