The Great Depression Ahead: How To Prosper In The Crash Following The Greatest Boom In History (2009) - Plot & Excerpts
Average person tends to stop moving @ age 34 and peeks in leisure spending @ 54, buys first home @ 31 median repeat age 41. Rental housing tops @ age 26 which is average age of marriage was 22 in 1950 but has gained about a year per decade since.In USA we have 20 million illegal immigrants and the numbers tend to go down during economic downturns.The department of Agriculture estimates that it takes approximately $250,000 to raise one child, not including a college education. By 2050 the average lifespan could be closer to 100 and retirement closer to 85, in more developed countries first. Dent's use of demography to predict inflection points in the economy makes a lot of intuitive sense to me. I remember in a prior job I did a lot of time series forecasting and regressions, and I always asked myself how does this stuff ever pick up the inflection point. Of course, it doesn't and that's the problem. Dent uses demography to predict when birth cohorts start their biggest years of spending to predict growth in the economy. That's the bad news, however. The baby boomers have peaked and so the biggest engine of the US economy has also peaked. I am sure critics of Dent would say that his prediction in this particular book have not come out perfectly. I discount any precise prediction without regard to who made them. It's the big picture that makes a lot of sense. I guess the news from this one is hold on to your hat; it's going to be rough. I guess we can hope he's 100% wrong...
What do You think about The Great Depression Ahead: How To Prosper In The Crash Following The Greatest Boom In History (2009)?
An absolute must-read for anyone interested in a financial education.
—thespainwinner
Tough reading. Also current immediately only then all changes
—email0099
