The Lights In The Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology And The Economy Of The Future (2009) - Plot & Excerpts
There is a huge change coming, and very few people are talking about it. In the not-too-distant future almost everyone is going to lose their job. Not to offshoring—the Chinese will lose their jobs too. Robots and computers will be doing all the work.Martin Ford wrote this book as a wakeup call. There is an incredibly bright future ahead of us, he says, but only if we navigate the transition to this jobless future well. The key is figuring out how to pay people an income even though they aren’t working, because in order to keep a consumer-based economy going people need money. There is another possible future, Ford warns: the wealthy owners of the machines keep all the money, the unemployed masses can no longer buy anything, and the economy collapses.This book was published in 2009, so it was written when the financial collapse of 2008 was still raw. But Ford was already predicting that this recession would be followed by another “jobless recovery,” because the high unemployment rate is only partly caused by the financial collapse. The main cause is the increasing automation of jobs. Think of all the jobs that have become obsolete in the last twenty years: gas station attendant, cashier, phone operator, bank teller, receptionist, etc. The list of professions that are endangered is longer: accountants, lawyers, and radiologists are just an example.In fact, Ford says, jobs like house cleaning and auto repair are two of the safest career choices for the near future (although those will eventually go too.)His book is filled with facts and tables that are very convincing. Unfortunately, though, I think his main analogy is weak. The “lights in the tunnel” represent the people with high-enough income to be part of the global mass market. The richer you are, the brighter your light. The walls of the tunnel are covered with the light-filled displays of businesses, large and small. Light is basically a reflection of commerce happening.When most of us lose our jobs to robots, if we have no income, consumer spending will plummet and the lights in the tunnel will go out. The problem with this analogy is that it doesn’t convey any deeper understanding of the issue. This is a complex idea to convey in an image. One of the things that’s missing is the concept of interrelationship: my prosperity feeds yours, and if we break the chain we will all be poorer. A healthy society forms strong feedback loops that continuously raise everyone up in an ascending spiral. But when those loops are broken, for a time the richest will get a little richer, but eventually the whole society gets hollowed out. I also had some trouble with his characterization of the average person. When he imagines 50 or 75% people of the population unemployed, he pictures most of these people wallowing on the couch all day watching television. He argues that in order to get people to “do something of value,” we must “drive” people to act responsibly when they no longer have to work. Of course there would be a small number of people who were like that. But I have a higher opinion of humanity. I think that after a time of enjoying the new leisure (taking an extended vacation), most people would start naturally expressing themselves via an interest or passion. Whether it would be volunteering to visit lonely old folks (I don’t think we’re ready to give up interpersonal relationships quite yet), or cataloging every episode of a favorite television show on a website, or writing a novel or a symphony, I think the vast majority of us would blossom given the chance. We wouldn’t need to be driven by some outside entity to do something of value.Well-worth the read. The book is a really thought provoking analysis how the continuing automation might impact our economic lives. The assumptions are clearly set out and the analysis equally brutal, honest and concise. The author clearly knows what he is talking about. Some of his reasoning gets weaker when he goes into non-tech items (philosophy, Marx) and it is quite possible that a follow up after a bit more thorough study of Marx and some philosophers who have made observations on the danger of tying mans worth to the job and the power of consumption might be even more interesting. Also the actual points made could be made on a few pages less. Still it is a remarkable book and I am grateful to the author of e techcrunch column to have recommended it.
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