The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2006) - Plot & Excerpts
I'm not sure to be the right guy to review such a book. Why? I'd lie if I told that I understood everything Kurzweil explained in it. O.K. the author tried hard to make it more understandable: he put as much as possible in graphs and statistics, pictures, examples of the ordinary life and so on. All these tools should help us to understand, but... this is still a book written by a nerd for nerds. And don't you know that graphs and stats lie? Furthermore, in French we say: "Comparaison n'est pas raison". It means that's not because you give great examples that seem to justify what you're saying that you're right.Anyway, sometimes this book seemed to me like a plate of spaghetti. There are a lot of theories (noodles) from many different sources, some true, some questionable, and they are so much intermingled that you can't tell where one ends and the other begins. And on top of that, Kurzweil adds his own theories (sauce) that cover everything, so we are not able to really distinguish on what he exactly based his statements. But maybe, the problem is not Kurzweil's wordiness, maybe it's just me. I'm not a nerd in genetics, nanotechnology, computing, and robotics. Who, except Kurzweil, can pretend to possess an extensive knowledge on all these subjects anyway? Even for an avid reader of science blogs and scientific magazines, there are parts hard to read in this book. But the papers I usually read in magazines are much shorter and more simplified than the content of this dense book.DESCRIPTIONKurzweil characterized evolution throughout all time as progressing through six epochs, each one building on the next. He said the four epochs which have occurred so far are Physics and Chemistry, Biology and DNA, Brains, and Technology. He predicts the Singularity will coincide with the next epoch, The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence. After the Singularity he says the final epoch will occur, The Universe Wakes Up.Law of Accelerating Return in summary:Kurzweil explains that evolutionary progress is exponential because of positive feedback; the results of one stage are used to create the next stage. a) human intelligence creates technologyb) technology is growing fastc) technology is now beginning to improve human intelligence (computing, biotech, neuroscience, etc.)d) this creates a positive feedback loop, exponential in natureKurzweil is not the first to suggest the idea of accelerating change - it's been stated in varying forms since the 60's by folks like Buckminster Fuller. But basing his thesis on the well-known "Moore's Law" - computing power will double every eighteen months - Kurzweil shows how computer processing capacity will soon outstrip that of the human brain. Once that transformation is achieved, it will be a short step to enhance existing technology to reforming the human body.Singularity:"We are just now obtaining the tools sufficient to begin serious reverse engineering (decoding) of the human brain's principles of operation. We already have impressive models and simulations of a couple dozen of the brain's several hundred regions. Within two decades, we will have a detailed understanding of how all the regions of the human brain work.We will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers by the end of this decade and with personal-computer-size devices by the end of the following decade. We will have effective software models of human intelligence by the mid-2020s.""In the aftermath of the Singularity, intelligence, derived from its biological origins in human brains and its technological origins in human ingenuity, will begin to saturate the matter and energy in its midst. It will achieve this by reorganizing matter and energy to provide an optimal level of computation... to spread out from its origin on Earth."Predictions:Kurzweil is very optimistic. He believes that dramatic advances in GNR (Genetics, Nanotechnologies, and Robotics) are inevitable; any resistance by governments, ethicists, or individuals are automatically calculated into his predictions. So he has no qualms on setting a date for the completed Singularity: 2045. By that time, he claims, we would have completely reverse engineered the human brain (meaning decoded the brain and recoded it in machines), and would be leveraging non biological intelligence a billion times more powerful. We would be able to change or upgrade any part of the human body; our DNA will be transformed to make us unable to catch major diseases; we'll have "nanodoctors" inside our bloodstream that will improve our health from within. Thus we would be able to practically live forever (if we are still alive by then). Kurzweil is also confident that other serious issues confronting humanity such as poverty, hunger, energy shortage, global warming and so on will be easily solved by the power of technology. Most of the solutions seem to depend on Genetics, Nanotechnology, Robotics (GNR) supported by Artificial Intelligence (AI). With autoreproducing nanocomputers, nanobots, nanotubes, other nanotechnologies and inventions. And by "the power of ideas" (according to the author, there is an idea to solve any problem if you think hard enough) every hurdle will be easily surmountable.Here are some of the arguments he bases his predictions on:* Software are getting exponentially more complex* Hardware are getting cheaper* Our understanding and modeling of the human brain is getting better and betterHe focuses on the good impacts of technology, such as:* Technological innovations will allow the disabled to see, hear, and walk if they so choose (it remembers me some well-known prophet)* New "toys" as immersive virtual reality* End of illness* Radical life extension* Economic benefits* Freeing humans from workAnd some of the scary impacts:* New "toys" as immersive virtual reality* Nanorobots for the military that make it possible to kill anybody anywhere with complete precision* Destruction of the biological basis of humans and uploading one's brain on the computer (unclear how it will be done and how voluntary this will be)* Legal rights for artificial intelligence machines* Genetic engineering of babies (people who will not subscribe to this will 'evolve' out of the way)* Failure to understand the social consequences of new technologies is like playing with fire* A nanodefense immune system to protect the biosphere from the dangers of self-replicating nanobots (why this is scary is that an improper use of the immune system itself can destroy the entire Earth biosphere in a matter of hours)* Merging of human and machine (not determined if "human" is the result our complete genetic or the result of the functioning of our brain)* There will not be any technological magic wand to help us with these possible problems.Note that I put "new toys" in the good and the bad impacts because it could seem "virtually" fun, but I don't want anybody to become a part of the "Matrix".A few personal questions:If we got nanochips in our brain and the technology improves exponentially, how many times are you ready to be operated to get the last technology? What will happen if futuristic hackers succeed to control all those in-brain chips? What will happen if terrorists succeed to remote control our nanobots (nanoweapons, nano-aircrafts, nanomissiles and nanowarriors,...)? With the possibility to control remotely everything, there are no borders anymore, so who will legislate on those topics?Before ending, just a little joke. J. G. Ballard, a great science fiction author wrote: "If enough people predict something, it won't happen."Conclusion:It's hard to believe that this book was written 8 years ago. It still reads like a cutting-edge science book. Whether we agree with Kurzweil or not, this book is an intellectual feast and an absorbing read. Example, there are great discussions as to when computers will become indistinguishable versus humans (Turing test). If nothing else, the book is dynamite to any reader who likes to ponder the future and technological changes. So I give it four stars.
This pseudo-religious, pseudo-scientific tome by one of the world's leading futurists lays out a timeline to a moment when the pace of technological innovation -- specifically, in the power of computer hardware and software -- becomes so rapid that, from our perspective in the present, it occupies a single point in time. Hence, the singularity.Kurzweil's predictions are based primarily upon an observation made by Gordon Moore of Intel: that computing power per dollar will double every 18 months. This isn't exactly what he said; it's actually an expression of transistor density. But the effect that consumers and Kurzweil care about is price-performance, which is doubling every 18 months. Kurzweil looks into the future and extrapolates that $1000 will buy you as much processing power as a human brain by the mid 2020s and more than all human brains in existence by the 2030s. More intriguingly, he also looks into the past and postulates an identical exponential progress, starting with the evolution of DNA and continuing on up through homo sapiens, agriculture, the wheel, and investment banking. This observation, that "milestones" in "progress" seem to be happening more frequently as time goes by, is the basis of his Law of Accelerating Returns, which is the cornerstone of his belief system. Basically, Kurzweil believes that all evolutionary systems, of which technology is one, increase their "order" exponentially. Therefore, it's no coincidence that it took 2 billion years for DNA to evolve, but then only 1 billion years for eukaryotes, then only 500 million years for multicellular organisms, and so on, each milestone occurring in half as much time as it took to achieve the one before it. For reference, see:Canoncial milestones in the SingularityThe foundation for his Law of Accelerating Returns is by far the weakest part of his argument for what the future will be like. He asserts that evolutionary systems inevitably increase their "order" exponentially, but never approaches a rigorous definition of the term. This hand-waving approach to his fundamental theory really comes to a head when he talks about the Fermi Paradox, the observation that intelligent life in the universe seems to be uncommon. This flies in the face of Kurzweil's thesis, which is that intelligence inevitably evolves from DNA up through brains through supercomputers, until eventually a civilization is converting all the matter and energy in the universe into one giant computational device at an exponential rate. If such a project is underway on behalf of some other intelligent race, they're being awfully quiet about it. Therefore, a futurist is forced to either 1) apply a universal anthropic principle: we must be the first intelligent (technology-creating) race in the universe; or 2) accept that there's nothing inevitable about the evolution of intelligence or technology. Kurzweil chooses option 1), and while he makes an eloquent case for his choice it's far from airtight. Beetles have been evolving exactly as long as we have -- they're more successful than us by any evolutionary metric -- and yet they possess no intelligence.Kurzweil is at his best when he sticks to the predictions that his objective measures of price-performance of information technologies actually support, and these predictions really are awe-inspiring. We can say with great certainty that the years of the 2020s will in fact give rise to truly earth-moving, paradigm-shattering technologies as a result of cheap, ubiquitous computers. Kurzweil has a lot of specific examples, mostly concerning the augmentation of human intelligence and virtual reality interfaces for the brain, that are best read in the book itself.It's worth noting that Kurzweil doesn't seem to think that peak oil will affect his predictions in the least. James Kunstler's The Long Emergency Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century talks about the diminishing returns of technology, while Kurzweil posits the Law of Accelerating Returns. Clearly, one of these men is a pessimist and one an optimist. The question that concerns all of us is: who is right? I view the singularity and peak oil as a race, with the future of human civilization at stake. Can the exponential increase in technological progress replace our fossil fuel energy before Saudi production peaks? No one knows; Kurzweil is pretty bad at predicting specific applications of technology (he thought we would have glasses that use lasers to paint images onto our retinas by 2009), but his data on the exponential increase in price-performance in information technologies is so predictable as to be considered infallible. There's enough solar energy hitting this planet to replace our fossil fuel use and then some. Kunstler thinks we'll be unable to harness it as a civilization because of the how very little time we have until oil production peaks; but then, he clearly doesn't understand the exponential nature of progress, so his predictions are suspect. Kurzweil, on the other hand, is a self-admitted utopian optimist who sincerely believes that humankind's ascension to the stars is not just likely, but destined, preordained.So to reiterate: should you be investing in canned food or in nanotechnology companies (and virtual pornography firms, of course)? I can't tell you how to live your life, but my personal perspective on this dilemma is as follows: in 20 years we will either be living in the middle of the fantastic future promised by the Singularity; or we'll be back to an agrarian lifestyle and focused mainly on staying alive and killing our neighbors. Since the latter outcome, the total and near-irrevocable destruction of our way of life, is unthinkable, I prefer to believe in the former. In other words, I choose not to invest in canned food, because I can't imagine living in a world where I'll need it.I can't say I recommend this book very strongly, except for those who already have a strong interest in the Singularity. The subject matter is often fascinating and thought-provoking, but the presentation leaves much to be desired. Kurzweil rambles and repeats himself, and multiple times lets his narrative devolve into pages upon pages of bulleted lists. I'm sorry, Mr. Kurzweil, but I could have gotten that on Wikipedia.
What do You think about The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2006)?
Kurzweil has made a living of being a futurist and an inventor. Many of his inventions are the result of his predictions coming true, so there is good reason to listen to what he has to say on the topic. The main idea is that the evolution of technology is not linear (as most people think) but exponential. This exponential development of key technologies leads to dramatic changes in human history over relatively short periods of time. Good examples include the internet and cell phones. The book focuses specifically on 3 key technologies that will produce the human "singularity", an event where humans transcend their former selves and become something more than human. These key technologies (known as GNR) are genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (or artificial intelligence). When these 3 things progress and converge in the next few decades, we will see humanity benefit by eradicating disease, prolonging life expectancy indefinitely, and promoting human intelligence to astronomical levels through direct neural connections to computer hardware. Effectively, we'll become so smart we'll be able to outlive and outhink "normal" humans to an unimaginable degree. He makes a compelling argument that the singularity is not a matter of "if" but of "when", and that we should be proactive in pursuing these technologies, not just for the benefit of humanity, but to keep amoral people from exploiting these things to an unfair advantage. It's a fascinating read and worth digging into if you have any appreciation for science in general.
—Dan
FUTURE SCHLOCK(If you loved "Future Shock", and "The Celestine Prophecy" changed your life, this is the book for you)But, wait! All those 5-star reviews gotta count for something, right? Well, let's take a look. "We will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers by the end of this decade." Really, Ray. How's that coming along? You've still got a year, two if we're charitable. But, even despite the spectacular vagueness of the claim, things are hardly looking good. "For information technologies, there is a second level of exponential growth: that is, exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth". A breathtakingly audacious claim. Without a scintilla of evidence provided to justify it. Graphs where the future has been conveniently 'filled in' according to the author's highly selective worldview do not count as evidence, and are nothing more than an embarrassment. But then, most of the graphs in this book do not bear up under close scrutiny - their function is more cartoon-like. Even Kurzweil's more apparently reasonable claim - that of exponential growth at a constant rate - rests on a pretty selective framing of the question and interpretation of existing data. "Two machines - or one million machines - can join together to become one and then become separate again. Multiple machines can do both at the same time: become one and separate simultaneously. Humans call this falling in love, but our biological ability to do this is fleeting and unreliable." Say what now?From a technical standpoint, as far as biotechnology is concerned (which is the area I am most competent to judge), there's hardly a statement that Kurzweil makes that is not either laughably naive or grossly inaccurate. Assuming that, indeed, drug delivery via nanobots and the engineering of replacement tissue/organs will at some point become reality, Kurzweil's estimate of the relevant timeframe is ludicrously optimistic. A relevant example is the 20 years it took to derive clinical benefit from monoclonal antibodies -- the rate-limiting steps had little to do with computational complexity. So the notion that, in the future, completely real biological, physiological, and ethical constraints will simply melt under the blaze of increased computing power is fundamentally misguided. From a statistical point of view, things are no great shakes either. His account of biological modeling is such a ridiculous oversimplification it defies credulity. I'd elaborate, but frankly, the whole sorry mess is just starting to irritate me. Given the density of meaningless, unsubstantiated, and demonstrably false statements in the first few chapters, it's hard to see the point in continuing. If one actually reads carefully what he's saying, and assumes that he is assigning standard, agreed-upon, meaning to the words he uses, then several possible reactions seem warranted:* that sinking feeling that one inhabits a universe that is completely orthogonal to those who gave this a 5-star rating* heightened skepticism and aversion to Kool-Aid* bemusement at the gap between Kurzweil's perception of reality and one's own - in particular, the evident moral vacuum in which he "operates", as well as apparent ignorance or indifference to the lot of the vast majority of the planet's inhabitants* wonder at the sheer monomaniacal gall of the manGrandiose predictions of the future, the more outlandish the better, appear to have an undiminished appeal for Homo sapiens. For the life of me, I have never been able to figure out why.
—David
I would consider this an 'impact book', one that truly changed the way I perceive the world. Kurzweil aims to convince his reader that we are on the cusp of an exponential growth in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) that will fundamentally change humanity, creating humans that are fully integrated with machines, live as long as they like, and frequently immerse themselves in virtual worlds. Its premise sounds a bit far-fetched but his meticulous research, incredibly broad grasp of current research, and history of success in predicting technological growth are surprisingly convincing. The book can be repetitive as Kurzweil feels the need to offer each and every criticism a full rebuttal, frequently reusing the same points, and to repeatedly explore the same concepts in various scenarios. If you can get over the repetitiveness, accept the fact that some of the science of this book will probably go over your head, and allow yourself to be open to the possibility that Kurzweil's futurist predictions might actually be feasible, this book will introduce you to an incredible new world, decades before you actually meet it.
—DJ
